Construction Backlog Indicator Rebounds in March, Contractor Confidence Improves

View ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index tables for March. View the full Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index data series.

Backlog is down over the past year for every region except for the Middle States, which now has the second largest backlog of any region. The South continues to have the largest backlog despite a large decline over the past year.

ABC’s Construction Confidence Index readings for sales, profit margins and staffing levels increased in March. All three readings remain above the threshold of 50, indicating expectations for growth over the next six months.

“Given headwinds such as high borrowing costs, emerging supply chain issues, project financing challenges and labor shortages, the persistent optimism among nonresidential construction contractors is astonishing,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Last month, contractors reported rising backlog and greater conviction regarding likely growth in sales, employment and profit margins.

“While certain readings are below year-ago levels, there was broad-based improvement in March,” said Basu. “For instance, in the category of profit margins, 32% of those surveyed in February expected improvement over the next six months. That share rose to nearly 34% in March, with only 24% hinting at near-term margin compression. That indicates that though costs of delivering construction services continue to rise, contractors collectively enjoy enough pricing power to support stable to rising margins. If interest rates begin to decline during the summer as is widely expected, confidence is likely to climb further.”

Note: The reference months for the Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index data series were revised on May 12, 2020, to better reflect the survey period. CBI quantifies the previous month's work under contract based on the latest financials available, while CCI measures contractors' outlook for the next six months. View the methodology for both indicators.

Visit abc.org/economics for the Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index, plus analysis of spending, employment, job openings and the Producer Price Index.